The Demographic Transition Theory Helps Explain

The Demographic Transition Theory Helps Explain.

Significant changes in birth and decease rates

Demographic transition overview, where “phase 5” is shown as unknown.

In demography,
demographic transition
is a miracle and theory which refers to the historical shift from loftier birth rates and loftier death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (specially of women) and economic development, to low birth rates and low death rates in societies with advanced technology, educational activity and economic development, as well as the stages betwixt these 2 scenarios.[1]
Although this shift has occurred in many industrialized countries, the theory and model are frequently imprecise when applied to private countries due to specific social, political and economic factors affecting detail populations.[1]

Even so, the existence of some kind of demographic transition is widely accepted in the social sciences considering of the well-established historical correlation linking dropping fertility to social and economical development.[2]
Scholars debate whether industrialization and higher incomes lead to lower population, or whether lower populations pb to industrialization and higher incomes. Scholars also argue to what extent various proposed and sometimes inter-related factors such equally higher per capita income, lower bloodshed, former-age security, and rising of need for human being capital are involved.[iii]



The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history adult in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973).[iv]
Adolphe Landry of France made similar observations on demographic patterns and population growth potential effectually 1934.[5]
In the 1940s and 1950s Frank Westward. Notestein developed a more than formal theory of demographic transition.[6]
Past 2009, the being of a negative correlation between fertility and industrial development had go 1 of the most widely accepted findings in social science.[ii]

The Jews of Bohemia and Moravia were the among the first populations to feel a demographic transition, in the 18th century, prior to changes in mortality or fertility in other European Jews or in Christians living in the Czech lands.[vii]



Demographic transition overview, where “phase 5” is shown as unknown.

The transition involves four stages, or maybe five.

  • In stage one, pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are loftier and roughly in rest. All human populations are believed to have had this balance until the late 18th century, when this remainder ended in Western Europe.[8]
    In fact, growth rates were less than 0.05% at to the lowest degree since the Agricultural Revolution over 10,000 years ago.[8]
    Population growth is typically very slow in this stage, because the society is constrained by the available food supply; therefore, unless the club develops new technologies to increase food production (e.g. discovers new sources of nutrient or achieves higher ingather yields), any fluctuations in nativity rates are soon matched by death rates.[eight]
  • In stage two, that of a developing country, the death rates drop chop-chop due to improvements in nutrient supply and sanitation, which increase life expectancies and reduce affliction. The improvements specific to food supply typically include selective breeding and ingather rotation and farming techniques.[8]
    Numerous improvements in public health reduce mortality, peculiarly childhood mortality.[8]
    Prior to the mid-20th century, these improvements in public health were primarily in the areas of nutrient handling, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene.[8]
    One of the variables often cited is the increase in female literacy combined with public health educational activity programs which emerged in the late 19th and early on 20th centuries.[8]
    In Europe, the decease rate pass up started in the tardily 18th century in northwestern Europe and spread to the south and due east over approximately the next 100 years.[eight]
    Without a respective fall in nascence rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this phase feel a large increase in population.
  • In stage three, birth rates fall due to diverse fertility factors such as admission to contraception, increases in wages, urbanization, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increment in the status and education of women, a reduction in the value of children’s piece of work, an increase in parental investment in the pedagogy of children and other social changes. Population growth begins to level off. The birth rate decline in adult countries started in the late 19th century in northern Europe.[eight]
    While improvements in contraception do play a role in birth charge per unit decline, contraceptives were not generally available nor widely used in the 19th century and as a outcome likely did non play a significant role in the reject then.[8]
    Information technology is of import to note that birth charge per unit decline is acquired as well by a transition in values; non just because of the availability of contraceptives.[viii]
  • During stage four there are both depression birth rates and depression death rates. Nativity rates may drop to well beneath replacement level as has happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. As the large group born during phase two ages, it creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity rates and an aging population in developed countries. By the late 20th century, birth rates and expiry rates in developed countries leveled off at lower rates.[9]
  • Some scholars break out, from stage iv, a “phase five” of below-replacement fertility levels. Others hypothesize a dissimilar “stage five” involving an increase in fertility.[10]

Equally with all models, this is an arcadian picture of population change in these countries. The model is a generalization that applies to these countries as a grouping and may not accurately depict all individual cases. The extent to which it applies to less-developed societies today remains to be seen. Many countries such equally China, Brazil and Thailand take passed through the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) very quickly due to fast social and economic modify. Some countries, especially African countries, announced to exist stalled in the second stage due to stagnant development and the effects of nether-invested and under-researched tropical diseases such every bit malaria and AIDS to a limited extent.



Stage one


In pre-industrial society, death rates and nascence rates were both loftier, and fluctuated rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and illness, to produce a relatively abiding and young population.[1]
Family unit planning and contraception were virtually nonexistent; therefore, nascency rates were essentially just limited past the ability of women to deport children. Emigration depressed death rates in some special cases (for instance, Europe and particularly the Eastern United States during the 19th century), only, overall, death rates tended to lucifer nativity rates, oft exceeding 40 per grand per twelvemonth. Children contributed to the economic system of the household from an early age by carrying water, firewood, and letters, caring for younger siblings, sweeping, washing dishes, preparing food, and working in the fields.[11]
Raising a kid cost little more than feeding him or her; there were no instruction or entertainment expenses. Thus, the full cost of raising children barely exceeded their contribution to the household. In addition, every bit they became adults they became a major input to the family business, mainly farming, and were the chief form of insurance for adults in erstwhile historic period. In Bharat, an adult son was all that prevented a widow from falling into destitution. While expiry rates remained high in that location was no question equally to the need for children, even if the means to prevent them had existed.[12]

During this stage, the society evolves in accordance with Malthusian paradigm, with population substantially determined past the food supply. Any fluctuations in food supply (either positive, for case, due to engineering science improvements, or negative, due to droughts and pest invasions) tend to translate directly into population fluctuations. Famines resulting in meaning bloodshed are frequent. Overall, population dynamics during stage one are comparable to those of animals living in the wild. According to Edward, Revocatus. (2016) This is the before phase of demographic transition in the world and also characterized past main activities such as small fishing activities, farming practices, pastoralism and fiddling businesses.

Stage two


World population 10,000 BC-2017 AD

This stage leads to a fall in death rates and an increase in population.[13]
The changes leading to this stage in Europe were initiated in the Agricultural Revolution of the eighteenth century and were initially quite slow. In the twentieth century, the falls in death rates in developing countries tended to be essentially faster. Countries in this phase include Yemen, Afghanistan, and Iraq and much of Sub-Saharan Africa (but this does not include Due south Africa, Zimbabwe, Republic of botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, Kenya, Gabonese republic and Ghana, which have begun to move into stage 3).[fourteen]
needs update

The reject in the death rate is due initially to two factors:

  • Showtime, improvements in the food supply brought most by higher yields in agricultural practices and better transportation reduce decease due to starvation and lack of water. Agricultural improvements included crop rotation, selective breeding, and seed drill engineering science.
  • Second, meaning improvements in public health reduce mortality, especially in childhood. These are not then much medical breakthroughs (Europe passed through stage two before the advances of the mid-twentieth century, although in that location was significant medical progress in the nineteenth century, such as the development of vaccination) as they are improvements in water supply, sewerage, nutrient handling, and general personal hygiene following from growing scientific knowledge of the causes of disease and the improved education and social status of mothers.

A result of the refuse in mortality in Stage Two is an increasingly rapid growth in population growth (a.thousand.a. “population explosion”) as the gap between deaths and births grows wider and wider. Annotation that this growth is not due to an increase in fertility (or birth rates) but to a decline in deaths. This modify in population occurred in due north-western Europe during the nineteenth century due to the Industrial Revolution. During the second half of the twentieth century less-adult countries entered Stage 2, creating the worldwide rapid growth of number of living people that has demographers concerned today. In this phase of DT, countries are vulnerable to go failed states in the absence of progressive governments.

Another characteristic of Stage Two of the demographic transition is a change in the historic period construction of the population. In Stage 1, the bulk of deaths are concentrated in the first 5–x years of life. Therefore, more than anything else, the decline in death rates in Stage Two entails the increasing survival of children and a growing population. Hence, the age structure of the population becomes increasingly youthful and start to have big families and more of these children enter the reproductive cycle of their lives while maintaining the loftier fertility rates of their parents. The lesser of the “historic period pyramid” widens first where children, teenagers and infants are hither, accelerating population growth rate. The historic period structure of such a population is illustrated past using an case from the Third World today.

Stage iii


In Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), death rates are low and nativity rates diminish, every bit a dominion accordingly of enhanced economic conditions, an expansion in women’southward status and education, and access to contraception. The decrease in birth rate fluctuates from nation to nation, as does the time span in which it is experienced.[15]
Phase Iii moves the population towards stability through a pass up in the birth rate.[16]
Several fertility factors contribute to this eventual decline, and are mostly similar to those associated with sub-replacement fertility, although some are speculative:

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  • In rural areas continued decline in babyhood death meant that at some point parents realized that they didn’t need as many children to ensure a comfortable onetime age. As childhood death continues to autumn and incomes increase, parents can become increasingly confident that fewer children will suffice to help in family business and care for them at erstwhile age.
  • Increasing urbanization changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the value of children in rural society. Urban living also raises the cost of dependent children to a family. A recent theory suggests that urbanization likewise contributes to reducing the birth rate considering it disrupts optimal mating patterns. A 2008 study in Iceland found that the nigh fecund marriages are between distant cousins. Genetic incompatibilities inherent in more afar outbreeding makes reproduction harder.[17]
  • In both rural and urban areas, the toll of children to parents is exacerbated past the introduction of compulsory education acts and the increased need to educate children and so they tin take up a respected position in society. Children are increasingly prohibited under law from working outside the household and make an increasingly limited contribution to the household, every bit school children are increasingly exempted from the expectation of making a significant contribution to domestic work. Even in equatorial Africa, children (age under 5) now required to take clothes and shoes, and may fifty-fifty require schoolhouse uniforms. Parents begin to consider information technology a duty to buy children(s) books and toys, partly due to instruction and access to family unit planning, people begin to reassess their need for children and their ability to raise them.[12]

A major factor in reducing birth rates in phase 3 countries such as Malaysia is the availability of family planning facilities, like this i in Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia.

  • Increasing literacy and employment lowers the uncritical acceptance of childbearing and maternity every bit measures of the condition of women. Working women accept less time to raise children; this is specially an issue where fathers traditionally make petty or no contribution to child-raising, such every bit southern Europe or Japan. Valuation of women beyond childbearing and maternity becomes important.
  • Improvements in contraceptive engineering are now a major cistron. Fertility reject is caused every bit much by changes in values well-nigh children and gender as by the availability of contraceptives and knowledge of how to apply them.

The resulting changes in the age structure of the population include a refuse in the youth dependency ratio and eventually population aging. The population structure becomes less triangular and more than similar an elongated balloon. During the flow between the decline in youth dependency and rise in old age dependency at that place is a demographic window of opportunity that can potentially produce economic growth through an increment in the ratio of working age to dependent population; the demographic dividend.

However, unless factors such every bit those listed above are immune to piece of work, a society’south birth rates may not drop to a low level in due fourth dimension, which ways that the society cannot keep to stage three and is locked in what is called a demographic trap.

Countries that have witnessed a fertility decline of over 50% from their pre-transition levels include: Costa rica, El Salvador, Panama, Jamaica, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tunisia, People’s democratic republic of algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, South Africa, India, Kingdom of saudi arabia, and many Pacific islands.

Countries that accept experienced a fertility decline of 25–50% include: Guatemala, Tajikistan, Egypt and Zimbabwe.

Countries that accept experienced a fertility reject of less than 25% include: Sudan, Niger, Afghanistan

Stage 4


This occurs where birth and death rates are both low, leading to a full population stability. Death rates are low for a number of reasons, primarily lower rates of diseases and college production of food. The birth rate is low because people have more opportunities to choose if they want children; this is fabricated possible past improvements in contraception or women gaining more independence and piece of work opportunities.[18]
The DTM is only a proffer nigh the future population levels of a country, not a prediction.

Countries that were at this stage (total fertility rate betwixt 2.0 and ii.5) in 2015 include: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Kingdom of bhutan, Cabo Verde, Republic of el salvador, Faroe Islands, Grenada, Guam, India, Indonesia, Kosovo, Great socialist people’s libyan arab jamahiriya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mexico, Myanmar, Nepal, New Caledonia, Nicaragua, Palau, Peru, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Tunisia, Turkey and Venezuela.[nineteen]

Stage five


United Nation’s population projections by location.
Note the vertical axis is logarithmic and represents millions of people.

The original Demographic Transition model has merely four stages, just additional stages have been proposed. Both more-fertile and less-fertile futures accept been claimed as a Stage V.

Some countries have sub-replacement fertility (that is, below two.i–2.two children per woman). Replacement fertility is generally slightly higher than two (the level which replaces the ii parents, achieving equilibrium) both considering boys are built-in more than often than girls (almost 1.05–1.1 to 1), and to compensate for deaths prior to full reproduction. Many European and East Asian countries at present take college expiry rates than birth rates. Population aging and population turn down may somewhen occur, assuming that the fertility charge per unit does not change and sustained mass immigration does not occur.

Using data through 2005, researchers have suggested that the negative relationship between development, as measured past the Human Development Alphabetize (HDI), and nascence rates had reversed at very high levels of development. In many countries with very high levels of evolution, fertility rates were approaching two children per adult female in the early on 2000s.[ii]
All the same, fertility rates declined significantly in many very high development countries between 2010 and 2018, including in countries with high levels of gender parity. The global data no longer support the suggestion that fertility rates tend to broadly ascension at very high levels of national evolution.[21]

From the bespeak of view of evolutionary biological science, wealthier people having fewer children is unexpected, as natural choice would be expected to favor individuals who are willing and able to convert plentiful resource into plentiful fertile descendants. This may be the upshot of a deviation from the surroundings of evolutionary adaptedness.[x]

Nigh models posit that the birth rate will stabilize at a low level indefinitely. Some dissenting scholars note that the modern surroundings is exerting evolutionary force per unit area for higher fertility, and that eventually due to private natural selection or cultural selection, nascency rates may rise over again. Part of the “cultural selection” hypothesis is that the variance in birth charge per unit between cultures is pregnant; for instance, some religious cultures have a college nascence charge per unit that isn’t deemed for by differences in income.[24]

Jane Falkingham of Southampton University has noted that “We’ve really got population projections wrong consistently over the last 50 years… nosotros’ve underestimated the improvements in mortality… but also we’ve non been very skillful at spotting the trends in fertility.”[10]
In 2004 a United Nations office published its guesses for global population in the year 2300; estimates ranged from a “low judge” of 2.three billion (tending to −0.32% per twelvemonth) to a “high estimate” of 36.iv billion (disposed to +0.54% per year), which were contrasted with a deliberately “unrealistic” illustrative “constant fertility” scenario of 134 trillion (obtained if 1995–2000 fertility rates stay abiding into the far future).[10]

Furnishings on age structure


One such visualization of this issue may exist approximated by these hypothetical population pyramids.

The decline in decease rate and nascence rate that occurs during the demographic transition may transform the historic period structure. When the decease rate declines during the second stage of the transition, the result is primarily an increment in the younger population. The reason existence that when the death rate is high (stage one), the infant mortality charge per unit is very loftier, often above 200 deaths per k children built-in. When the death charge per unit falls or improves, this may include lower babe mortality rate and increased child survival. Over fourth dimension, as individuals with increased survival rates age, there may also exist an increase in the number of older children, teenagers, and immature adults. This implies that there is an increase in the fertile population proportion which, with constant fertility rates, may lead to an increase in the number of children born. This will further increase the growth of the child population. The second stage of the demographic transition, therefore, implies a ascent in kid dependency and creates a youth bulge in the population construction.[28]
As a population continues to motion through the demographic transition into the third phase, fertility declines and the youth bulge prior to the reject ages out of child dependency into the working ages. This stage of the transition is often referred to every bit the golden historic period, and is typically when populations encounter the greatest advancements in living standards and economic evolution.[28]
However, further declines in both bloodshed and fertility will eventually result in an aging population, and a rise in the anile dependency ratio. An increment of the aged dependency ratio oftentimes indicates that a population has reached below replacement levels of fertility, and equally result does not accept enough people in the working ages to support the economy, and the growing dependent population.[28]

Historical studies


Demographic modify in Deutschland, Sweden, Chile, Mauritius, China from 1820 to 2010.
Pink line: rough decease rate (CDR), light-green line: (crude) nativity rate (CBR), yellowish line: population.



Betwixt 1750 and 1975 England experienced the transition from high levels of both mortality and fertility, to depression levels. A major factor was the abrupt decline in the death rate due to infectious diseases,[29]
which has fallen from virtually xi per ane,000 to less than ane per 1,000. By contrast, the death rate from other causes was 12 per 1,000 in 1850 and has not declined markedly.[
citation needed

Scientific discoveries and medical breakthroughs did not, in general, contribute importantly to the early major reject in infectious disease bloodshed.[
citation needed



In the 1980s and early 1990s, the Irish demographic status converged to the European norm. Mortality rose in a higher place the European Customs boilerplate, and in 1991 Irish gaelic fertility fell to replacement level. The peculiarities of Ireland’due south by demography and its recent rapid changes challenge established theory. The recent changes have mirrored inwards changes in Irish gild, with respect to family planning, women in the work force, the sharply declining power of the Cosmic Church building, and the emigration factor.[30]



France displays real divergences from the standard model of Western demographic evolution. The uniqueness of the French instance arises from its specific demographic history, its historic cultural values, and its internal regional dynamics. France’south demographic transition was unusual in that the mortality and the natality decreased at the aforementioned time, thus at that place was no demographic boom in the 19th century.[31]

French republic’s demographic contour is similar to its European neighbors and to developed countries in general, yet information technology seems to exist staving off the population decline of Western countries. With 62.nine million inhabitants in 2006, it was the second near populous land in the European Union, and it displayed a sure demographic dynamism, with a growth rate of 2.4% betwixt 2000 and 2005, higher up the European boilerplate. More than than ii-thirds of that growth can be ascribed to a natural increment resulting from high fertility and nativity rates. In contrast, France is one of the developed nations whose migratory residual is rather weak, which is an original characteristic at the European level. Several interrelated reasons business relationship for such singularities, in particular the touch on of pro-family policies accompanied by greater unmarried households and out-of-wedlock births. These general demographic trends parallel equally important changes in regional demographics. Since 1982 the aforementioned significant tendencies take occurred throughout mainland French republic: demographic stagnation in the least-populated rural regions and industrial regions in the northeast, with stiff growth in the southwest and along the Atlantic declension, plus dynamism in metropolitan areas. Shifts in population between regions account for about of the differences in growth. The varying demographic evolution regions tin can be analyzed though the filter of several parameters, including residential facilities, economical growth, and urban dynamism, which yield several distinct regional profiles. The distribution of the French population therefore seems increasingly divers not just by interregional mobility but also past the residential preferences of individual households. These challenges, linked to configurations of population and the dynamics of distribution, inevitably heighten the effect of town and country planning. The most recent census figures show that an outpouring of the urban population means that fewer rural areas are standing to register a negative migratory flow – ii-thirds of rural communities have shown some since 2000. The spatial demographic expansion of large cities amplifies the process of peri-urbanization nonetheless is also accompanied by move of selective residential flow, social selection, and sociospatial segregation based on income.[32]

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McNicoll (2006) examines the common features backside the striking changes in health and fertility in East and Southeast Asia in the 1960s–1990s, focusing on seven countries: Taiwan and South korea (“tiger” economies), Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia (“2nd wave” countries), and People’s republic of china and Vietnam (“market-Leninist” economies). Demographic change tin be seen as a past-product of social and economic development and, in some cases, accompanied by strong government pressure. An constructive, often authoritarian, local administrative system can provide a framework for promotion and services in wellness, education, and family planning. Economical liberalization increased economic opportunities and risks for individuals, while also increasing the price and often reducing the quality of these services, all affecting demographic trends.[33]



Goli and Arokiasamy (2013) indicate that Republic of india has a sustainable demographic transition beginning in the mid-1960s and a fertility transition beginning in post-1965.[34]
As of 2013, Bharat is in the later half of the third stage of the demographic transition, with a population of 1.23 billion.[35]
It is nearly 40 years backside in the demographic transition procedure compared to Eu countries, Japan, etc. The present demographic transition stage of India forth with its higher population base of operations will yield a rich demographic dividend in future decades.[36]



Cha (2007) analyzes a panel data fix to explore how industrial revolution, demographic transition, and homo capital accumulation interacted in Korea from 1916 to 1938. Income growth and public investment in wellness caused mortality to fall, which suppressed fertility and promoted teaching. Industrialization, skill premium, and closing gender wage gap further induced parents to opt for child quality. Expanding demand for didactics was accommodated by an active public school building program. The interwar agronomical depression aggravated traditional income inequality, raising fertility and impeding the spread of mass schooling. Landlordism collapsed in the wake of de-colonization, and the consequent reduction in inequality accelerated human being and physical majuscule accumulation, hence leading to growth in South Korea.[37]



China experienced a demographic transition with high death charge per unit and low fertility rate from 1959 to 1961 due to the groovy famine.[3]
However, equally a issue of the economical comeback, the birth rate increased and bloodshed rate declined in China before the early 1970s.[five]



Campbell has studied the census of 19th-century Madagascar in the light of demographic transition theory. Both supporters and critics of the theory hold to an intrinsic opposition between human and “natural” factors, such as climate, famine, and disease, influencing demography. They also suppose a sharp chronological divide between the precolonial and colonial eras, arguing that whereas “natural” demographic influences were of greater importance in the former period, human factors predominated thereafter. Campbell argues that in 19th-century Madagascar the human gene, in the form of the Merina state, was the predominant demographic influence. However, the impact of the land was felt through natural forces, and it varied over time. In the late 18th and early 19th centuries Merina land policies stimulated farm production, which helped to create a larger and healthier population and laid the foundation for Merina armed forces and economic expansion within Madagascar.

From 1820, the toll of such expansionism led the state to increment its exploitation of forced labor at the expense of farm production and thus transformed it into a negative demographic force. Infertility and baby mortality, which were probably more than significant influences on overall population levels than the adult bloodshed charge per unit, increased from 1820 due to disease, malnutrition, and stress, all of which stemmed from state forced labor policies. Available estimates betoken little if any population growth for Madagascar between 1820 and 1895. The demographic “crunch” in Africa, ascribed past critics of the demographic transition theory to the colonial era, stemmed in Republic of madagascar from the policies of the imperial Merina authorities, which in this sense formed a link to the French government of the colonial era. Campbell thus questions the underlying assumptions governing the argue nigh historical demography in Africa and suggests that the demographic affect of political forces be reevaluated in terms of their irresolute interaction with “natural” demographic influences.[38]

Russian federation


Russia entered stage 2 of the transition in the 18th century, simultaneously with the rest of Europe, though the effect of transition remained limited to a small-scale decline in death rates and steady population growth. The population of Russia nearly quadrupled during the 19th century, from xxx million to 133 million, and connected to grow until the First World War and the turmoil that followed.[39]
Russian federation and so quickly transitioned through stage three. Though fertility rates rebounded initially and almost reached 7 children/woman in the mid-1920s, they were depressed by the 1931–33 famine, crashed due to the 2nd Globe State of war in 1941, and only rebounded to a sustained level of 3 children/woman later on the war. By 1970 Russia was firmly in stage iv, with crude nascence rates and crude decease rates on the order of 15/m and 9/1000 respectively. Bizarrely however, the nascency rate entered a state of constant flux, repeatedly surpassing the xx/1000 too as falling below 12/chiliad.

In the 1980s and 1990s, Russia underwent a unique demographic transition; observers call it a “demographic catastrophe”: the number of deaths exceeded the number of births, life expectancy fell sharply (particularly for males) and the number of suicides increased.[40]
From 1992 through 2011, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births; from 2011 onwards, the opposite has been the case.

United States


Greenwood and Seshadri (2002) show that from 1800 to 1940 at that place was a demographic shift from a mostly rural US population with high fertility, with an average of seven children built-in per white adult female, to a minority (43%) rural population with low fertility, with an average of two births per white woman. This shift resulted from technological progress. A sixfold increase in existent wages made children more expensive in terms of forgone opportunities to piece of work and increases in agricultural productivity reduced rural need for labor, a substantial portion of which traditionally had been performed by children in farm families.[41]

A simplification of the DTM theory proposes an initial decline in bloodshed followed by a later drib in fertility. The irresolute demographics of the U.S. in the last two centuries did not parallel this model. Beginning effectually 1800, there was a sharp fertility refuse; at this time, an average woman usually produced seven births per lifetime, but past 1900 this number had dropped to nearly four. A bloodshed decline was not observed in the U.S. until almost 1900—a hundred years post-obit the drop in fertility.

However, this belatedly reject occurred from a very depression initial level. During the 17th and 18th centuries, crude death rates in much of colonial North America ranged from fifteen to 25 deaths per thou residents per year[42]
(levels of up to 40 per 1000 being typical during stages i and 2). Life expectancy at nascency was on the order of 40 and, in some places, reached l, and a resident of 18th century Philadelphia who reached age 20 could have expected, on average, boosted 40 years of life.

This phenomenon is explained past the design of colonization of the U.s.. Sparsely populated interior of the country immune ample room to accommodate all the “excess” people, counteracting mechanisms (spread of communicable diseases due to overcrowding, low real wages and bereft calories per capita due to the limited amount of available agricultural land) which led to high mortality in the Old World. With low mortality but stage i birth rates, the United States necessarily experienced exponential population growth (from less than iv one thousand thousand people in 1790, to 23 million in 1850, to 76 million in 1900.)

The only area where this pattern did not agree was the American South. High prevalence of mortiferous endemic diseases such as malaria kept mortality every bit high as 45–50 per 1000 residents per year in 18th century North Carolina. In New Orleans, bloodshed remained so high (mainly due to yellow fever) that the city was characterized as the “death capital of the United States” – at the level of 50 per thou population or higher – well into the 2d half of the 19th century.[44]

Today, the U.S. is recognized equally having both low fertility and bloodshed rates. Specifically, birth rates stand up at 14 per m per twelvemonth and death rates at 8 per yard per year.[45]

Disquisitional evaluation


It must be remembered that the DTM is just a model and cannot necessarily predict the future. Information technology does however give an indication of what the future nascence and decease rates may exist for an underdeveloped country, together with the full population size. Most especially, of form, the DTM makes no comment on change in population due to migration. It is not necessarily applicative at very high levels of development.[two]

DTM does not account for contempo phenomena such as AIDS; in these areas HIV has go the leading source of bloodshed. Some trends in waterborne bacterial babe mortality are also disturbing in countries similar Malawi, Sudan and Nigeria; for example, progress in the DTM clearly arrested and reversed between 1975 and 2005.[46]

DTM assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth, without taking into business relationship the part of social alter in determining birth rates, e.g., the education of women. In recent decades more work has been washed on developing the social mechanisms behind information technology.[47]

DTM assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate. However, demographers maintain that there is no historical bear witness for order-wide fertility rates rising significantly afterwards high bloodshed events. Notably, some historic populations have taken many years to replace lives subsequently events such as the Blackness Death.

Some have claimed that DTM does not explain the early fertility declines in much of Asia in the second half of the 20th century or the delays in fertility reject in parts of the Center East. Nevertheless, the demographer John C Caldwell has suggested that the reason for the rapid turn down in fertility in some developing countries compared to Western Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand is mainly due to government programs and a massive investment in education both past governments and parents.[14]

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Second demographic transition


The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a conceptual framework first formulated in 1986 past Ron Lesthaeghe and Dirk van de Kaa in a short article that was published in the Dutch folklore journal
Mens en Maatschappij.[48]

: 181

SDT addressed the changes in the patterns of sexual and reproductive behavior which occurred in Due north America and Western Europe in the menses from about 1963, when the birth control pill and other cheap effective contraceptive methods such as the IUD were adopted past the full general population, to the nowadays. Combined with the sexual revolution and the increased part of women in society and the workforce the resulting changes have profoundly affected the demographics of industrialized countries resulting in a sub-replacement fertility level.[51]

The changes, increased numbers of women choosing to not marry or have children, increased cohabitation outside marriage, increased childbearing by unmarried mothers, increased participation by women in higher education and professional person careers, and other changes are associated with increased individualism and autonomy, particularly of women. Motivations accept changed from traditional and economic ones to those of cocky-realization.[52]

In 2015, Nicholas Eberstadt, political economist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, described the Second Demographic Transition as one in which “long, stable marriages are out, and divorce or separation are in, along with serial cohabitation and increasingly contingent liaisons.”[53]

See also


  • Nascence dearth
  • Demographic dividend
  • Demographic economics
  • Demographic trap
  • Demographic window
  • Epidemiological transition
  • Mathematical model of cocky-limiting growth
  • Neolithic demographic transition
  • Migration transition model
  • Population pyramid
  • Charge per unit of natural increase
  • Cocky-limiting growth in biological population at carrying capacity
  • Waithood
  • World population milestones
  • r/Thousand life history theory



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  • Carrying capacity
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    Demographic Transition Theory. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Springer. p. 418. ISBN978-1-4020-4373-4.

  • Chesnais, Jean-Claude.
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    Oxford U. Press, 1993. 633 pp.
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  • ————————; Anderson, Barbara A; Härm, Erna (1979).
    Human being Fertility in Russian federation since the Nineteenth Century. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Academy Press.

  • Coale, Ansley J; Watkins, Susan C, eds. (1987).
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    . Classic article that introduced concept of transition.
  • Davis, Kingsley. 1963. “The theory of change and response in modernistic demographic history.”
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    29(Oct): 345–66.
  • Kunisch, Sven; Boehm, Stephan A.; Boppel, Michael (eds):
    From Grey to Silver: Managing the Demographic Modify Successfully, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg 2011, ISBN 978-three-642-15593-ii
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    , full text in Ebsco.
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    ISBN missing
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  • Borgerhoff, Luttbeg B; Borgerhoff Mulder, M; Mangel, MS (2000). “To marry or not to ally? A dynamic model of union behavior and demographic transition”. In Cronk, L; Chagnon, NA; Irons, W (eds.).
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  • Landry, Adolphe, 1982 [1934],
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  • Notestein, Frank W. 1945. “Population — The Long View,” in Theodore W. Schultz, Ed.,
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  • Soares, Rodrigo R., and Bruno Fifty. S. Falcão. “The Demographic Transition and the Sexual Division of Labor,”
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  • ————————; Nye, Robert A; van Poppel, Frans (2003). “Fertility and Contraception During the Demographic Transition: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches”.
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    , total text in Projection Muse and Ebsco
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    Subsequently the adjacent World War, nosotros will see Deutschland lose more than women and children and soon kickoff again from a developing phase

  • World Bank, Fertility Rate

The Demographic Transition Theory Helps Explain


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